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Climate change: a Russian perspective

Key Stage Four Key Stage Five Article Podcast The carbon and water cycles, climate and change

Introduction

Russia is often overlooked with respect to its role in climate change conversations. However, this vast country with a population of over 140 million, a wealth of fossil fuels, and diverse ecosystems, has an important role to play in the causes and effects of climate change. A reliance on oil and gas production has dominated Russia’s economic and political landscape over the past 25 years and this dependence has hindered its commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In this article, we will explore Russia’s historic involvement in climate change science, the impacts of climate on the country, and the country’s engagement with the politics of climate change.

History of climate change science in Russia and the Soviet Union

Summary of the history of climate change

Figure.1: Brief timeline of Russia and the Soviet Union’s involvement in climate change science. Data source: Jon Oldfield.

Greenhouse gases

According to the latest report from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), Russia, along with the E27, China, India, Brazil and the US, are the world’s largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters. The BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries also increased their emissions from 2022 to 2023.

At the time the Kyoto Protocol entered into force in 2005, Russia’s emissions were already well below the 1990 baseline figure due to the marked contraction in industrial activity between 1991 and 1998. As such, the Kyoto Protocol provided little incentive for Russia to address its level of emissions.

While Russia is a major emitter of GHGs in terms of overall volume of output, if we calculate emissions per capita, a different story emerges, with the Middle East featuring as a major emitting region, although Russia remains a significant actor.

Figure.2: Choropleth map of gas emissions per capita. Data source: EDGAR Report, 2024

International action for climate change

Russia remained part of the Kyoto Protocol and the subsequent Paris Agreement (2015, entering into force 2016) but has been largely ineffective with respect to addressing its climate change challenges. As part of the Paris Agreement, it committed to become carbon neutral by 2060 and limit greenhouse gas emissions to 70% of the 1990 levels. However, the independent initiative: Climate Action Tracker rates Russia’s actions to date as ‘Critically Insufficient’ and therefore this target is considered unambitious and insufficient to address the wider climate challenge. In addition, hydrocarbon development remains a dominant feature of the country’s economic policy and there is limited sign of any significant shift in this area.

Russia’s turbulent political landscape in recent years has meant that the flow of information about climate change in the country has been reduced. Nevertheless, some data can still be shared with international bodies. As the war in Ukraine continues, further to the human cost of military action, the impact on the environment is also mounting. A report from the Guardian in June 2024, observed that the conflict had ‘generated at least 175m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e), due to emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and sulphur hexafluoride. The main causes of these emissions, amongst other factors include the consequences of military activity, uncontrolled fires, diverted civil aircraft, and damage to energy infrastructure.

Figure.3: Fires release carbon dioxide and other pollutants into the atmosphere.

Domestic impacts of climate change

Russia is not immune to the impacts of climate change. This vast country has experienced more extreme weather in recent years such as heat waves, droughts, and flooding, giving rise to increased levels of erosion, wildfires, ill-health and other consequences.

For example, April 2024 registered increased flooding in the Ural region as rapid snowmelt caused the Ural River to reach record levels following a swift rise in temperature. As a result, the city of Orenburg was flooded in parts when the embankments were breached.

In July the same year, wildfires in Amur Oblast (located in Russia’s Far East region), caused by long periods of hot, dry weather in highly vegetated areas, were estimated to have released more than 17 megatons of carbon for June and July alone.